July 1, 2005
By Mark Memmott
USA Today
WASHINGTON Somebody should schedule a parade, because that's about the only thing that will be missing.
Now that Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor has announced she is retiring, a full-blown political campaign is underway. And it will be complete with charges, countercharges, sound bites and coded messages, just like any other political battle.
Liberal and conservative interest groups are ready to spend millions of dollars on TV ads one commercial is already on the air. They're poised to flood senators' offices with e-mails, phone calls and letters. "Talking heads" are already prepped for the TV shout shows. (Audio analysis: Bush faces pressure)
"It's going to look like a presidential campaign," says Richard Davis,. political science professor at Brigham Young University and author of Electing Justice, Fixing the Supreme Court Nomination Process.
Rumors and speculation had focused on the chance that conservative Chief Justice William Rehnquist, 80, and under treatment for thyroid cancer, would soon announce his retirement. A retirement by O'Connor, 75, was considered possible but less likely.
What was certain: If there was a retirement, intense lobbying from interest groups on both sides of the political aisle likely would turn the debate over the president's nominee into something as contentious as those surrounding the nominations of Clarence Thomas in 1991. and Robert Bork in 1987.. Thomas was confirmed. Bork was rejected.
"Especially (since) the retirement is O'Connor," C. Michael Comiskey,. political science professor at Penn State Fayette and author of Seeking Justices: The Judging of Supreme Court Nominees, says of the chances for a hard-fought, protracted battle. "With a Rehnquist retirement, Bush could make the court a little more conservative but not a lot. With O'Connor, the effect (is) huge" because she has been a swing, or moderate vote on some social issues.
Adding to the heat: the insatiable appetite for news and opinion on the 24-hour cable networks and the expected intense interest of some bloggers and others on the Internet, which barely existed during the Thomas and Bork debates.
Today, President Bush's fellow Republicans occupy 55. of the Senate's 100 seats. But it would take 60 votes to end a filibuster if Democrats wanted to block a nominee. A few Republicans also might not support the president's choice. Interest groups are preparing as if a vote could be close.
Here's a look at the leading groups, their plans and the messages they'll use to try to sway public opinion and senators' votes:
THE PRESIDENT'S SUPPORTERS
The biggest single spender in a nomination battle could be Progress for America, which says it has $18 million. for ads, e-mail and letter campaigns and "grassroots" efforts to support a Bush nominee.
The conservative advocacy group has already shown it will be aggressive. Last week it began airing a TV/radio ad that warns Democrats will "attack anyone the president nominates." The group will not hesitate to jump on any group or politician it feels unfairly attacks a nominee, says Brian McCabe,. Progress for America's president.
The Judicial Confirmation Network, a coalition of more than 70 conservative groups, also will be prominent as well. It has staff in six. key states (Arkansas., Colorado, Florida, Maine, Nebraska and Virginia) to organize rallies, e-mail campaigns and phone calls to lawmakers. The states were chosen either because their Republican senators might oppose Bush's nominee or because their Democratic senators might be persuaded to support the president. Also, the network has $3 million for ads.
Representatives from the Committee for Justice may be the president's supporters who become most familiar to Americans.
The conservative committee was founded in 2002. at the request of then-Sen. Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss. It will send a high-profile group of top Republicans out to talk up a nominee on the Sunday morning TV talk shows and cable network chat fests. They will include former Michigan Gov. John Engler, former White House counsel C. Boyden Gray, and former federal prosecutor Victoria Toensing TV veterans.
The groups will try to present a unified message: "We are looking forward," says Wendy Long,. counsel to the Judicial Confirmation Network, to supporting "someone who's highly qualified, experienced and will be faithful to the Constitution without implementing policy from the bench." In other words, a justice who won't be an "activist" on issues such as abortion.
They also won't shy from rebutting Democrats' criticisms with tough words of their own, Long says. Their opponents' calls for the president to consult with Democrats on his choice for a nominee, Long says, "come down to the fact that they just don't accept that they lost the election."
THE PRESIDENT"S OPPONENTS
Groups that have criticized Bush in the past over his nominees to federal courts and his policies on social issues have already crafted a message they will repeat often.
"The American people want more moderation they want (Bush) to unite the country, not divide it," says Ralph Neas,. president of the liberal group People for the American Way.
Neas says liberal groups want "a Sandra Day O'Connor-type nominee, not a Thomas or (Justice Antonin) Scalia." In other words, a justice who is "moderate" on abortion and other social issues. Any nominee they think does not fit that definition will give them an opening to criticize Bush for not seeking consensus.
People for the American Way spent about $5 million campaigning against efforts to change the Senate's filibuster rules. Neas won't say how much the group will spend on ads and other efforts related to a Supreme Court nominee. "It's impossible to predict," he says, "because of all the permutations involved especially who the nominee is."
NARAL Pro Choice America, which lobbies for "reproductive rights," says it has 30,000 people poised to send letters-to-the-editor to publications and e-mails to senators across the nation. It also will specifically target some lawmakers, including Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., who chairs the Judiciary Committee that will hold a nominee's confirmation hearing.
Sens. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I.,, "who are pro-choice will also be getting attention," says Nancy Keenan,. president of NARAL. "These senators should ask a nominee if he or she would uphold Roe v. Wade," the 1973 court ruling that made abortion legal nationwide.
As for who will be among the most familiar faces on the liberal side of the TV wars, Neas is experienced in those battles. Nan Aron,. director of the liberal Alliance for Justice, also will be prominent as well.
Aron, echoing Neas' message, says a "moderate" nominee would "sail through like a dream." But like Long, of the conservative Judicial Confirmation Network, Aron doesn't hesitate to say the "campaign" could be rough.
"If he tacks to the right," she says of the president, "he'll be igniting a firestorm of opposition."
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